On December 19,hosted by the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology(CAICT),the"2019 ICT seminar and white paper press conference"was held in Beijing.Yu Xiaohui,chief engineer of CAICT,released the"top 10 trends of China ICT"at the conference,which attracted wide attention.
Yu Xiaohui,chief engineer of CAICT
1. 5G commercialization accelerates industrial chain into maturity
2019 will be the crucial year for 5G,with its release of the 1st version of international standard,in the next 1-2 years,the major countries will launch the commercial application of 5G,and China will become one the first countries launching it.According to Yu,5G will bring revolutionary changes to the industrial chain.For example,many industrial giants in the industry are looking forward to the real commercialization of 5G and the changes it will bring.
2. Industrial Internet leads the digital transformation
There is a lot of room for innovation in the Industrial Internet.Industrial Internet provides a very important carrier to promote the deep integration of Internet,big data and artificial intelligence.Industrial Internet will integrate more new network and computing technologies.Industrial Internet is the most important infrastructure and the most important path to support the digital transformation and development.
3. Information network and industrial system reform and remodeling
Over the next two years,IPv6 will have more than 500 million active users,with the Internet users accounting for more than 50 percent,Yu said.At the same time,in the next two years,cloud and network integration will accelerate the reconstruction of network architecture and industrial ecology.In addition,the global satellite Internet will be deployed on a large scale in the next 3-5 years.
4. Ubiquitous connection builds a new ecology of intelligent connection of everything
At present,many bottleneck problems of the IoT have been solved.It is estimated that by 2020,the output value of the IoT in China will exceed 1 trillion yuan,and the compound growth rate will exceed 15%.In terms of the IoV,large-scale application demonstration and commercial deployment of LTE-V2X will be realized in the next 2-3 years.Network-connected automatic driving solutions are gradually improved,accelerates the process of unmanned driving;The main operating body and business model of IoV are gradually clear,and the whole process of auto production,sales and use is opened up.
5. Intelligent enablement drives the new wave of computing
Computing industry and ICT innovation complement each other.Yu pointed out that artificial intelligence and the application of intelligence will become an important driving force,which will maintain rapid growth in the next three years and is expected to gradually approach rational and stable development in the future.
Yu introduced three development trends of intelligent computing.The first is the deep penetration of the industry,especially the development of AI and its combination with the industry,which has brought huge demand for all kinds of computing.The second is the rise of edge computing.Cloud computing giants are actively pushing cloud computing downward,focusing on the edge deployment of artificial intelligence algorithms.Device manufacturers and operators rely on the advantages of being closer to users and end devices to accelerate the practice;Standardization organizations,open source communities and other organizations are also actively creating a Shared development environment for edge computing innovation.From the current perspective,the cooperation between edge and cloud forms the way of edge computing plus edge intelligence,which is a very important condition in the construction of intelligent ecology and a very important direction in the future development.In the future,edge computing needs to be combined with the digital transformation needs of various industries,and IT,CT and OT are undergoing the trend of in-depth integration.Third,computing chip fusion opens up a new path for development.
6. Artificial intelligence accelerates the popularization and diffusion of applications
In the field of artificial intelligence,firstly,supervised learning will approach the performance limit.Unsupervised learning,reinforcement learning,multiple-mode fusion and other new technologies have become research hot spots.Deep learning relies on large model and deep network to continue to approach the performance limit,which is suitable for small data scenarios.Unsupervised learning with mobility will become a research hot spot.In addition,diversified perception is the only way to intelligence,and multiple-mode fusion and interaction become the future trend.Secondly,dedicated chips,open source computing platforms and effective data have become important points for enterprises to build artificial intelligence ecosystem.It is estimated that 60%of artificial intelligence applications will be based on open source platforms by 2020.Leading enterprises present diversified development modes around the development framework platform,and international giants open source artificial intelligence development framework creates industrial ecosystem.Finally,AI can widely enable the application in production and daily life.AI application and industrialization will accelerate comprehensively.AI will be applied in education,transportation,medical and other fields,and it is expected that 30%of the global enterprises will use AI to assist them by 2020.
7. Block chain exploration and construction of distributed trust system
According to Yu,the deep integration and innovative breakthrough of block chain with cloud computing and IoT will promote its large-scale commercial exploration and application in medical,judicial,industrial and media sectors and build a new distributed trust system.It’s expected to see more progress and progress in block chain in the next 2-3 years,and more practices.
8. The ecological uncertainty of global ICT industry deepens
The global ICT industry has formed a pattern of division of labor and collaboration among countries.Trade protectionism affects global supply chains,technological innovation and production efficiency."It is expected that in the next 1-2 years,the growth rate of the global ICT industry as a whole will decline,mainly in the ICT manufacturing sector."Said Yu.
9. Multiple-party governance of digital economy moves from consensus to practice
Inclusive and prudent governance will remain the main tone of digital economic governance in the future,but the focus of governance will be more on normative and healthy development.
10. Intelligent attack and defense reconstruction of cyberspace security paradigm
Yu pointed out that at present,there are two major security issues.First,due to the global digital transformation and the development of the Industrial Internet,the security of cyberspace and the security of the physical world are intertwined and face unprecedented security challenges.Second,with the development of artificial intelligence technology,the"double-edged sword"effect of artificial intelligence becomes more and more prominent.Artificial intelligence has brought new possibilities for security attack and defense technology and many new challenges to security risks.Intelligent attack and defense will become the main form of security attack and defense.On the one hand,security risks of artificial intelligence are increasingly ubiquitous,which brings new threats and challenges.The security risks and malicious applications of artificial intelligence will comprehensively challenge the national cyberspace.On the other hand,the autonomous learning and evolution ability of artificial intelligence improve the level of security protection intelligence,and enhance the ability of prediction,early warning and prevention.The massive data analysis,adaptive learning,intelligent decision-making and rapid response of artificial intelligence provide new directions,abilities and technologies for security protection.
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